Elephants
Winning at fantasy means making predictions and acting on them prior to other players. To do that, you don't always have the privileges of hindsight and deduction. You will need foresight and inference. I hope to offer a some good if not somewhat inferential arguments for why some early moves on this weekly (if I have time) post.
Fantasy thinking is often over-obsessed with statistical correlations at the expense of firm causal understanding of what is happening on the field. The forest is often lost for the trees. A combination of understanding the game of football, recognizing interconnected changes that will influence teams, and eye testing the games themselves is the best antidote to the groupthink, herd-mentality of fantasy football expertism which, time and again, proves spotty at best in anticipating changes.
Last week
I posted this as "Eye-tested Takes" but I realized that's not what I was aiming for. A variety of posters and services watch the whole game and give you maximally thorough takes on every snap. I won't offer much of an opinion on players/teams I don't watch. I'll always watch enough. However, a lot of what I'll make as the case for picking up (or dropping) a player will be based on obvious things that are happening that rankings-myosis may miss.
There's always an elephant in the room that no one want's to acknowledge. This post gives fantasy advice that accounts for the elephants on the field.
Things I'm right about (so far):
1. Rivers Noodle Arm = Colts Lean into Jonathon Taylor: With the quality of that offensive line, Mack going down, and Rivers looking like shit, Jonathon Taylor may end-up being a top-5 back this year. TY Hilton and Parris Campbell are going to disappoint you.
A bunch of commenters disagreed, insisting Hines was the guy to get and Taylor as a top-5 was nuts. This is an instance of the eye-test making people too smart. Yes, Taylor netted 22 yards on 9 carries week 1. Who cares, he was great in college (larger sample size) and more importantly, Rivers looks SOOO spent that Taylor is the only obvious bell-cow RB for what is probably the best O-line in the league. You want that. Rivers threw it 25 times in week two (down from 44). Taylor had 26 carries, 2 receptions, 110 yards, and 1 touchdown. It was obvious what had to happen in Indy but fantasy groupthink herded everyone toward Hines.
If you had the audacity to ignore me on this (/s), the good news is there's still time. His trade value has skyrocketed on most charts but he's not quite valued as a top back yet. If you get the feel someone is under-valuing him, don't wait longer because his first 2 TD game is going to make him inaccessible in a trade. The Colts defense is also looking good enough to maintain a lead throughout a game, opening-up more run play calls. (Rivers sucking is going to do that all the time anyway).
And if you still don't believe me, watch
his highlights from this week and you'll see why he could be such a focal point. He does a lot of things that coaches like to lean-into: great ball security, adds 2-3 yards to the end of runs, explosive speed when he has big holes.
2.Browns Offense is fine: Don't panic about the Browns offense. Baker Mayfield looked like trash but the running offense actually looked pretty good at times...Stefanski is the guy you need to believe in... The biggest takeway from the game isn't the Browns offense is bad, its that the Ravens defense is great.
Both Browns running back scored multiple TD's and registered more than 150 yards each week 2. Baker continued to suck and it didn't matter. Stefanski's offense is good and his coaching career is a testament to his talent. All-Ivy-League Football Player. First coaching job was in the NFL. They wouldn't let him leave for 14 years because they knew he was a talent.
So don't run from Chubb or Hunt yet. And if you have them both, start them both and don't feel bad (unless you have a clearly better option like Zeke too...then probably favor starting Kareem Hunt the larger your ppr value, but its a tough call). The Browns are a perfect storm that make both startable: (a) Both Chubb and Hunt have top-5 rb talent and it comes across when you watch them on the field. With good combinations of strength and speed, each one is TD risk on every snap. (b) Sefanski divides snaps very well. Both are getting touches-a-plenty. They just signed they're "back-up" RB to a new contract (I mean, how often does that happen in the modern NFL?). KS also divides snaps by drive, unless a drive gets very long, so even if Chubb is doing well, he's going to give Kareem Hunt a whole drive. (c) starting both is fading Baker which is smart. The Browns are going to increasingly realize that their offense is more effective with Baker doing less. They may even move to Case Keenum (their back-up, legit didn't know that last week) and that's fine for Chubb/Hunt.
I wouldn't run from OBJ or Jarvis Landry yet either, though Baker's ineptitude has got to make you worry. Think about what Minnesota offenses did over the years with Diggs, Theilen, etc. Both OBJ and Landry are going to be solid bets for big-play TD's (like OBJ's last Thursday) here and there but likely not breaking the top-10. Still, the talent ceiling is high with both so a buy-low scenario where you get them in a trade could pay-off if you bet on Stefanski more than Mayfield.
3. Deandre Hopkins is the WR1 Deandre Hopkins will be the #1 fantasy receiver this year... And most importantly, the offensive situation in Arizona is the perfect storm for his fantasy situation. Kyler Murray is good, but he's not working his way through progressions yet.
Hopkins nabbed a TD but only had 9 targets this week. I'll admit that I only watched Kyler Murray's highlights so forgive me if its there and I didn't see it, buuuuut...He's not completing passes to 2nd and 3rd reads. Its one read then run. That's great for Hopkins' stats because the further into the season they get, the MORE Hopkins is going to be involved on plays designed to chuck it to him, no matter what. Hopkins is one of those guys that's always open, and Kyler is a smart player who knows that AND knows he's not good enough yet to start looking for someone else if Hopkins is "covered". That may hurt the Cardinals at some point. But Hopkins is getting fed this season.
And obviously, a rash of injuries at WR has made this look to be a better prediction. Hopkins is already a stud in that offense and he's still learning it. His stock is only going up from here.
Its true the WR's new offenses typically do poorly. A couple of reasons why that's not true of Hopkins: (a) he's physically the most gifted receiver in the league. Randy Moss kicked ass his first year with the Patriots. Some players are talented enough that it doesn't take time, as long as they're smart as hell like Randy Moss or (b) Hopkins is an intelligent dude. He negotiated his own contract and didn't fuck it up. He wants to be G.M. Big brained guy, he'll pick up quickly. You can see that on the field, he's constantly looking back at Kyler to make sure he did the right thing on each play. (c) HOF'er in the WR room: Fitz will get him up to speed fast.
Quick note about Kyler Murray: He's tearing it up. One encouraging thing that you might not see how little he's allowing himself to be tackled. As a fantasy owner, that's encouraging because it suggests he can sustain a high running floor and not get injured. And there's an added assurance that he's putting those slides for zero yards (for example) on tape because the coaches see that too and are
more willing to call more of those plays down the stretch. Still, I wouldn't compare him to Lamar Jackson last season yet. Lamar Jackson was throwing TD's to his 4th and 5th read in week 1 against the Dolphins last season. Murray may hit a scheme ceiling where defenses, especially good ones, start to take away his 1 and 2 and contain his run game (though it is strong and he has good vision).
Things I was totally wrong about: zero things!
HA! Next section!
Things I'm not right about yet but pretty soon I will be:
1. Joe Burrow AJ Green is going to be good. If you watch the game, you see Joe Burrow fitting the ball into tight windows in clutch situations. In fact, he wasn't finding a lot of open receivers, he was throwing the ball well/correctly into great coverage and making lemonade. Also, AJ Green is looking fully healthy and like his old self.
Well, AJ Green was targeted 13 times and caught...3 of those passes for 29 yards. So clearly, the chemistry between them was oversold by me last week. Still, 13 targets is encouraging and so is the Bengals inability to run the ball. No matter how much they try, they're wretched run-blocking always leaves them down late in games and in 3rd-and-forever situations. They just let a rookie throw it 61 times.
Another consideration is that Denzel Ward was covering Green
all night:
A.J. Green has had an up-and-down career vs. the Browns. Thursday’s game was on the down side, and it had mostly to do with Denzel Ward.
Green had three catches for 29 yards. Overall, Ward broke up three passes against the Bengals. And according to Next Gen Stats, Ward was making life difficult for Joe Burrow all night, forcing eight tight window passes in 11 targets as the nearest defender.
Green is still pretty low on trade value charts but stands to have a huge upside as Burrow's primary target.
2. Rodgers is back. ...are there really any physical traits that are important to his game that would fade significantly at 36 year's old? I didn't see any missing zip off of his throws. I did see fucking darts getting tossed all over the field into tiny windows.
Aaron Jones is the #1 fantasy RB right now so obviously saying Rodgers is fully
back is pre-mature. However, he is impressing with some very, very pretty darts.
Also, the elephant on the field for the Packers is that Aaron Rodgers is a player driven by ego. Not a knock on him, he's just a guy who needs mojo to play at his finest. Maybe it required the stimulation of an insulting draft pick to prod him back into his HOF form. I'm not saying Rodgers can be a top 3 QB this year with Jackson and Murray running so well, but 4 or 5 doesn't seem out of reach.
Rodgers is pff
top-graded QB right now btw.
Fresh takes:
1.The Ravens are the best defense in the NFL. The loss of Earl Thomas is doesn't matter as much as what has been gained with Patrick Queen and L.J. Fort. Queen is incredibly fast and explosive underneath, getting into the backfield and making big plays. And L.J. Fort (
top rated pff lb right now) combine to give them rangey-coverage, tackling, and pass break-up ability over the middle they didn't have before which has further weaponized they're depth at CB (Humphrey, Peters, Smith). Peters specifically is a ball hawk that's found a great home in Baltimore; he couldn't scheme well anywhere else but Harbaugh has found a way to give him the freedom to ball hawk. Over the long haul, Harbaugh has maintained a great defense, regardless of departures/changes, for years and years. When he has this much talent, his defenses are typically dominant.
Be warry of starting iffy players against them at any position.
They're worth trading for, I think the turnovedef TD potential makes them worth it.
2. J.K. Dobbins will break-out out as the preferred option in the Ravens backfield. Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards have both proven to be reliable RB's for the Raven offense. But Ingram is 30 with over 200 carries in 3 of the last 4 seasons. Edwards has been reliable, a home-grown UDFA. But at 238lbs and without elite speed, he's leaving many big runs on the table.
Dobbins didn't attend the combine. But ran a 4.44 40...
in high school:
Dobbins posted a 4.44s 40-yard dash, 4.09s short shuttle and a 43.1-inch vertical jump as a high school senior at the event. There are also many reports that Dobbins squatted over 700 pounds.
He has power running balance and break-out speed that NONE of the other backs in Baltimore have. 4th rounder Justice Hill was their attempt of to develop that speed last year but didn't break out.
A couple of elephants make this one a good bet:
(a) Lamar's durability -- right now, he's taking a bunch of carries because he's the only one in their backfield that has the speed to break huge runs. If Dobbins can fill that role, Lamar Jackson can afford to take fewer chances and John Harbaugh can opt to only drop him back to pass 7 times in the second half when they're winning, like what happened in week 2.
(b) that defense -- Baltimore's defense is going to be great enough this year to take over games, making steady doses of run plays inevitable as they'll spend a lot of games up by 2 scores. Yes, they were up like that a lot last year but their only homerun hitter in the backfield was Lamar (see above, Justice Hill wasn't getting it done).
Here's an example: this is a shot from Gus Edwards' 22 yard scamper last week:
https://preview.redd.it/mhhhpzmkrxo51.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cdf46ac4bcce3e503729f909c0e787f85459eb9 The Ravens offensive line is good at opening holes like this. While it didn't prove important in this game (BAL was up 30-16 at the time), each run like this where a more explosive player could scored is an
opportunity cost for the people calling plays. And its not just points left behind, its points scored while Lamar is watching like a fan. Its points that could allow more aggressive defensive play calling. If you're a coach for Baltimore, you don't necessarily
want Lamar to have a gaudy stat-line every week if you're winning. If he can throw 16 passes in a game and then sit-out the 4th quarter, that's ideal from the franchise's perspective (though not so much for Fantasy managers). Each Ingram/Edwards run that coulda been a touchdown means there's more time on the field for Lamar, larger portion of the game where they're not playing a dominant lead, and higher chance that they'll lose because points were left on the field. They need someone else hitting home runs in the running game.
Am I fading Lamar because of all of this? Not yet. Eye test = that guy is a singular talent. His throwing motion is smooth like Vick's, just a gifted, effortless release. He's also great at mostly avoiding contact (though all contact is bad contact if you're his coaches). Great decision maker too. Makes multiple reads on plays. Can't say enough about how great of player he is. Still, Baltimore is well put-together enough that they may be able to functionally win without him. So don't be surprised if, especially approaching the playoffs, Baltimore starts calling plays that don't involve as much Lamar. What's scary is that they may be a complete football team without him and he's the reigning MVP.
Finally, Dobbins had two carries last week. One was for a 44 yard gain where the blocking was good but not nearly as good as the image above. Even if the transition to him isn't fast, he could force the issue like Chubb did his rookie year, gaining 100 yards on 3 carries in a game.
No matter what, the Ravens will run by committee but there will come a point where the player to start out of the trio is Dobbins without a doubt.
3. Minshew is the truth and his team situation makes him a great fantasy player. Minshew isn't the most talented QB in the league. But above all things, he is competitive and scrappy. The Jags are good but not great so he's going need a lot of that scrappy-iness (lol, just say that sentence out loud, you'll hear it). James Robinson is very good and they're going to lean on him a lot. But when the time for much needed yards and points, it seems like the Jags tag Gardner Minshew II's Id in at offensive coordinator. Minshew isn't likely going to be top-5 qb but he might make the top 10 and is likely easier to get than other top targets.
Part of the reason DJ Chark isn't getting the production folks hoped is because Minshew is effectively spreading the ball around. Good for the jags, bad for fantasy owners. I wouldn't panic.
One of his targets I picked-up to stash is Laviska Shenault Jr. He's getting a legit number of carries each week and averaging over 10 yards per reception. He's an interesting pick-up because he doubles as handcuffs for Robinson. Seems like his carry count could go up to 10ish no problem if the Jags lost Robinson. So pay attention to what position he's listed in your league, scoring rules about how carries count in ppr, etc. But he passes the eye test, very shifty and fast on the field.
4. Teams that are quickly turning into dumpster fires that you should across-the-board fade: Jets
Gase is the worst. Never underestimate the ability of a shitty boss to ruin a workspace and make everyone fucking hate themselves, even though they're well compensated to play a game for a living. Listen, I know there's always gems on bad teams. But I have high blood pressure. So tuning into games with players I need to play well and watching the offense go 3-and-out 5 times in a row...I'm literally too old for that shit now so I try to stray-away from dumpster fire teams.
Vikings
Kubiak has got some big Stefanski shoes to fill and he's doing a bad job so far. I wouldn't panic about Dalvin Cook yet but another bad couple of weeks and I'd start shopping him. See the Browns thing above: Stefanski may have made the Vikings offense look better than it actually was for a decade. Combine that with the defense whose secondary would be better if they were scare crows and you're looking at a team that can't plan to run the ball for more than a quarter or 2.
Teams to be worried about: Broncos
Whew, the injuries. They're basically just starting with new team. We'll see how things go.
Detroit
Matt Patricia may have lost this team. And coaches like him don't recover team faith/confidence well in a loss-spiral.
Texans
BoB is going to crash that plane into a mountain while we all watch. Poor Watson, just watching Deandre Hopkins ball-out. One thing you can still bet on for awhile out of the Texans offense; Bill O'Brien is ego- and career-invested in David Johnson doing great things. He'll role with him when he shouldn't to prove to everyone that he was right to trade Nuk. Its dumb. But he's dumb.
Fortune Favors The Bold (FFTB) Predictions
WARNING: What you're about to read is not necessarily good fantasy advice, but things for me to say "told you so" about a week from now. I take no responsibility for any money you lose (and all responsibility for the money you win). Still, Alexander the Great said, Fortune Favors the Bold.
- JK Dobbins scores more fantasy points than CEH this week. (This prediction is backed-up by the time-honored tradition of spitting in one's hand and shaking on it so this shit is serious. Its also painful because I'm a Chiefs fan.)
- Laviska Shenault scores a running and a receiving touchdown tonight.
- Jonathon Taylor is the RB1 this week and its not close.
- Danny Dimes throws 3 TD's this week against the 49ers.
I'm probably wrong about most of this shit but FORTUNE FAVORS THE BOLD!
Thanks for reading! If I continue to be kind mostly right and people find it a good read, I'll keep posting these each week. Good luck!
EDIT: Thanks for the awards and upvotes strangers! I'll bring the column back next week. Appreciate the comments too, thanks for the banter, shit-talk, and criticism. I'll be spittin in palms again soon.
EDIT AGAIN: Thanks again for the feedback. This is fun and I'm going to enjoy doing it again next week. Some of the comments have suggested that the post doesn't really go out on many limbs. I'll do that more in the future. I've also added an extra section with a few "FFTB predictions" for this week.
submitted by UPDATED DEC '20! Some users quoted are no longer using those names.
MANY thanks to
cptnobservant for poking me with links and stuff to FIX this post up. Kudos!
KNOW YOUR STATE LAWS ON RVs!
https://www.rvtripwizard.com/rv-info/state-road-laws.php You are responsible in doing things legally correct. Anything found here is a suggestion from people varying from experts to hobbyists. It is up to YOU to be legal.
Remember as you read this, I could be wrong. That semi famous YouSkooler probably did it wrong, too - I can think of one couple who just pushed along making mistake after mistake and now are paying for it on the road as they travelblog (they also split up). So take what you read here as a guide but not as gospel. What is right for your build is right for your build. Just stay safe and legal.
Remember this - there is a reason why everyone does something the way they do. From beds in the back to insulation, certain things can't really be cheaped out on... unless it is a conscious decision to be different, or you are trying a new product that compares with the old way, odds are someone has tried it.
Ask questions. Someone, somewhere, has run into your issue. Hopefully one of the awesome people here will have the answer.
SHOULD I BUY A SKOOLIE?
If you are here, the answer is yes. ONE OF US! ONE OF US!
But... MAYBE not the first one you can afford. Do some research. Would you buy that 1984 used Toyota hatchback with 350,000 miles for 2200 bucks? It's in your price range, and it LOOKS good buuuuuut... there are a lot of buses out there, and yours is just waiting for you.
Why a Skoolie? Well, they are solid machines. They get the same MPG as an RV, and you can make yours the way YOU want, without cheap parts, an engine maxxed to its capacity, and a vehicle that can actually take a roll without turning into confetti.
Plus they are cheap to buy, and keep a better resale value.
This post is to try and have a one stop place for info. And if a post online is older than 2019, disregard anything it says. Even if it turns out to be right, it's best to think anything (Text based, video is fine, because you can see what might be outdated there such as how to install a VHS player) 2 years or older is outdated as a general rule of thumb. Except this one if it has been recently edited.
HOW DO I FIND A SKOOLIE?
Craigslist, ebay, your local school district. Google, really. Also, promotion time -
/skooliemarketplace and this post of mine which has questions and considerations.
DO I NEED A CDL?
Short answer: Most likely not, even with air brakes! Federally (USA), you do NOT, as long as you get rid of all the seats toot suite and your bus is under a certain weight unloaded. There is a state or two that is a little more restrictive on licensing, so if you are in the USA, check with the BMV/DMV or the web.
Is it a good idea to learn about the CDL process? Sure.
SHORT BUS, LONG BUS, AND YOU
Taken from a discussion between me and
ShortBus-Nectar . I was being my usual anti shortbus self, and ShortBus-Nectar had a thoughtful reply (edited by me):
I do agree that van body anythings are more expensive to do engine removals/overhauls than other vehicles with more accessible bays. This also applies to a truck vs van with the same driveline (Like F350 vs E350). I don't agree that van body fronts are expensive to maintain outside of the horror stories you hear about engine replacement.
... I said not all short or van-front buses can be covered under a blanket statement, I meant that not every engine/transmission combination is prone to massive services, and there are other considerations as well. I used the 6.0 as an example because basically every 6.0 on the road will eventually need heads, along with all the other stuff that needs to get replaced when they go (EGR cooler, etc) and its crazy expensive to do it all in one shot. Whereas something like a mechanical 7.3 or a 6.5 have issues, but not frequent services requiring the removal of the engine, followed by a build killing bill. Not trying to turn this into a discussion about which engine is better, I have no love for any manufacturer after spending 15 years as a tech.
You have another good point with the cost of tires on a larger bus. Likewise service for the brakes and basically everything else will have a higher cost in parts and labor. I do all my own work, but if I had to take it somewhere, I could go to basically any shop and they could service it. With a full size bus, most small shops will turn you away or might not have the tools to do the job. Manufacturers in the "light truck" industry are not required to provide service information to companies like Alldata, Mitchell, etc so most shops will have zero technical information to aid in diagnostics. Heavy duty shops tend to charge more per hour than general service shops.
I'm not saying go out and buy any van body you see, but I wouldn't avoid checking them out.
WHAT ENGINE AND TRANSMISSION SHOULD I GET?
http://www.buslandia.net/blog/2016/10/11/which-engine-tranny And then, to look deeper under the skoolie hood...:
http://www.buslandia.net/blog/2016/12/26/which-enginetranny-does-this-bus-have MostImprovedPlayer, many thanks!
TIRES, RUST, AND YOU.
Rust is bad, but not as bad as rust holes. A rusty floor takes 24 hours of work to fix up. But that means you have to remove your floor, which means you have to look under the bus with a strong flashlight.
If you are buying an already converted bus, and want to know how the underbody was when they purchased it, grab a magnet on a stick, and sweep the floor from below. Bondo isn't magnetic.
Rust holes take days, unless you know how to weld. Bondo smells funky.
Big bus tires are expensive. If you can find a good bus under $5000 with excellent tires, you are basically buying tires with a free bus on them.
This doesn't count for short bus van front styles.
HOW DO I CHECK MY POTENTIAL BUS FOR STUFF?
From
Ashandrik Here's my kind of defacto answer for these kinds of things. The rust comments assume you're somewhere that salts the roads in the winter. This also assumes you're a novice at this stuff and not a diesel mechanic, body work expert, etc.
New tires on a full size skoolie can run between $1600 and $3000. Ask me how I know... Haha. Don't just check tread on tires. Also check for dry rot, small cracks in the sidewalls that may seem minor, but actually mean the rubber is breaking down making it more prone to failure. Most tires should also have a date of manufacture stamped on them. Even tires sitting in a cool, dry, dark warehouse are aging, albeit slower than if they're out in the hot sun. So, that date matters even if the seller tells you they're new-old stock and just put on the bus. Tires over 10 years old are probably garbage or approaching it. Also, keep an eye out for super shiny tires. Some assholes will throw a little Armor All on the tires before you go look. If they're not brand new, they shouldn't shine like they are.
As for rust... One of the best places to check for rust are on the back door frame and where the rubber flooring ends. You'll also see it most in the stairwell(s). Don't be afraid to crawl under the bus and check. Take a flat head screwdriver (and a flashlight and/or headlamp) with you. If you see a rusty spot, poke and scratch at it. That'll tell you how bad the rust is. If it's just a thin layer that scratches off and shines underneath, then great. If your screwdriver plunges all the way through the metal, it's fucked. Check the frame for both heavy rust and straightness. Check the brakes on the tires from behind. If the bus has airbrakes, the chambers that hold the air bladders get rusted to fuck there. Check the exhaust too. That's another problem area.
I would even consider driving down south to buy a bus. I bought mine in Texas, and she's rust free. Almost as pure as the day it rolled off the assembly line. I could own this bus 10 more years and never have to worry about rust.
As for engines... First of all. Tell them not to start it before you get there. You want to do a cold start. First thing you do when you get there is have them open up the dog nose so you can feel the engine. If it feels like it's been running, tell them you'll stop back another day when it's been sitting a while. Check the coolant. It should be green or orange. If it's any other color, the bus hasn't been maintained properly. If it looks brown, kind of like, like peanut butter, then there's a head gasket leak letting oil into the coolant. This is bad. Walk away.
Check the rest of the fluids. Check the airfilter. If anything seems grosser than it should, take that into consideration.
A cold engine should still start easy (as long as cold doesn't mean below freezing). Less than 10 seconds of cranking should get it going cold, and it should start in a couple cranks after it's warm. Diesels aren't mysterious, moody creatures. They pretty much sound as healthy as they are. If it sounds rough, it probably has problems. If it sounds smooth, it probably is. It should have a nice even rumble. If you hear any pinging, ticking, etc., it might mean a problem. Look for white or blue smoke out of the tailpipe when you first start it. If it's blue, that means engine oil is getting into the cylinders, and you probably need an engine rebuild. Walk away. If you get a white cloud, then you might have some air intake or injector problems. I'd probably walk away from this one too unless the rest of the bus was near perfect, met nearly all my preferences, and was cheap (<$2,500).
Mileage probably isn't a big deal. Most diesels can hit 500k before they need a rebuild, and another 500k after that. If you put a million miles on your bus, congratulations! Go buy a new one and start over. Haha. Or just drop a new engine in for a few grand.
Get maintenance records if you can. Call the school district the bus was from if the seller doesn't have them. Sometimes their maintenance folks will still have them.
Take it for a drive. If they argue with you over not having a CDL and won't back down, make them drive it for you. Sit halfway in the stairwell and listen, if they're driving. Listen to how it shifts. Feel for vibrations that seem unusual. If a bus has been sitting for too long, the tires might be out of balance. Make sure you get some highway time in. Many school buses find speeds over 55mph to be difficult or impossible. This is something you should know before you buy your bus. See how it handles turns. Wiggle the steering wheel a bit while you drive. Don't do it enough to swerve the bus. You're feeling for play in the steering. You should have about 30 degrees of play. Anything over 60 degrees means worn out steering components. My bus had a bad power steering pump and a worn out pitman arm. Repairing the pump cost me over $500, and I haven't done anything about the pitman arm yet. I will probably end up spending a couple thousand to put a whole new front steering system on my bus eventually...
Check all the lights, in the dark if possible. The clearance lights at the top of the bus are hard to tell in the daytime if they're on or not. When lights on older buses go bad, it can be the sockets that failed instead of the bulb. Depending on the age of the bus, finding matching replacements might be time consuming (driving to half a dozen junk yards in hopes of finding a $12 light socket), and replacing all of them so they match is expensive (up to $50+ per light sometimes).
Check the seal around the windshield. Check for rust inside the bus around the windows and doors. Sometimes a little water gets in, and you have to reseal those areas. These kinds of problems probably aren't deal breakers, but it's good to know.
As for preferences in buses...
Try to find a bus with belly boxes. They are infinitely useful (general storage, mounting your generator, house battery boxes, etc.), and adding them later is a royal pain in the ass, unless you are or know a body work expert. Belly boxes also generally imply the possibility of highway gearing that would mean higher top speeds and better gas mileage on the road. Buses that have belly boxes are generally special ordered by school districts for long-distance field trips (football games, state competitions, band trips, etc.)
My personal engine preference goes (best to worst): Cummins 8.3, Navistar DT466, Cummins 5.9 (what I have), Navistar T444e. The T444e is the only one I'd really avoid, but know that with the Cummins 5.9 you're going to have to do some tinkering to get the kind of power I'd be comfortable with (enough for highway speeds and hills). Rear Differential ratios will determine your highway speeds more than anything else. Aim for a 4.33 or lower. I'm almost positive mine is like a 5.57, and that's why my top speed is stuck at 55mph.
Transmission: The most common transmission is the Allison AT545. It's an automatic transmission, and it's rock solid. However, it doesn't have overdrive or a locking torque converter. This means slightly worse fuel economy, not as good highway speeds, and overheating issues in hills and mountains. I would avoid the AT545 if possible, but you might find that impossible. They are ridiculously common. What I would want is basically any other Allison transmission. The AT643 is better, but a 1000, 2000, or 3000 (particularly the 3060, which happens to be the most common of these) would be the best. It doesn't matter which of those your bus has as long as it came that way from the factory. They are just rated for different weights.
Air brakes are much better than hydraulic brakes, but some states require a CDL for any vehicle with them. Each state has different rules about CDLs. In Texas I didn't need one because my bus was an RV that carried less than 14 passengers. If you do need it, getting your CDL isn't hard, but if you get a ticket with one, the penalties are a lot harsher. Avoid it if the law allows.
Air ride suspension is amazing, but chances of finding a bus with it is pretty much zero. So consider it a perk if you find one that has it. Brag about it to your friends until they hate you. I would. Haha. Last thing to talk about is price and some purchasing options. You can get good buses on auction from government organizations (especially schools, of course) for around $1500, sometimes less. The downside of this, is you have to buy a little more blind. You often can't test drive them or do much more than look around them. Many of them don't come with batteries and assume you'll be towing them home. You are also given NO leeway in when you can take them. Third party sellers are often much more expensive, but they've vetted the buses and possible done enough to get them running again. They are likely to let you test drive them, and they will let you pick up the bus at your convenience. I know
/SkoolieMarketplace lists buses as they become available, and
CascadesDad put a lot of info up on this subreddit's sticky.
Good luck!
WHAT ENGINE? WHAT TRANSMISSION? WHAT DO I NEED TO DRIVE PIKES PEAK?
Honestly, the only engine to stay away from is the Ford Powerstroke 6.0 (short bus). All other forms of the 6.0 are fine, if a little wimpy. Pushers push, are quieter, and don't haul things as well. Front end engines haul well and handle a bit better.
The transmission is all about what you want to do with it. Mountains? Flat? Haul? Odds are, there is no one perfect transmission for your needs. Be aware of that. Google is your friend here - remember, everyone either loves or hates your transmission of choice, so no matter what you pick, someone will say it's terrible. Look for what's good about it, and decide from there.
NONE of them, excepting maybe the infamous Ford Powerstroke 6.0, is a zippy engine capable of hauling butt.
ALRIGHT I HAVE A SKOOLIE, NOW WHAT?
TIME T'PLAY! Start thinking hard on your design, and where you are going to put the remarkably large amount of waste product that it will generate. Seats, metal, insulation, bits and bobs, screws, lenses, lightbulbs, skin and blood, and whatnot.
Seriously consider not putting in sideways facing seats. In the USA they don't really care (unless you are or have a child), but in other countries, riding on a sideways seat is illegal!
A lot of old posts that spread false or misleading information still exists. The only place that will have the answer is your local D/BMV or its website. If you are not satisfied with the answer you get from the person on the other end of the phone, look up your revised code. Here's Washington state's.
REGISTERING MY SKOOLIE AS A MOTOR HOME
The quickest way is this way:
https://www.reddit.com/skoolies/comments/85lt6w/skoolie_insurance_how_to_immediately_registe Seriously.
INSURANCE!
You CAN get insurance.
First off, only ask for insurance on what the title says it is. If it says commercial right now, get commercial. If it says RV, get RV. Do NOT say, "Oh it's a bus that I am converting in my spare time." Insurance agents get wobbly with what may be's. Just show the title, and say this is what I have, this is what I want. Get the bus converted, get the title changed, get the insurance you want.
You may have to investigate getting the bus titled in Vermont as an RV. See a few lines above.
Sidenote: if this will be your primary residence, let the insurance provider know. Especially if you bought the bus with a mortgage (which you can do for primary residences!). If they pull some BS about "You need another vehicle, this can't be your home AND be a primary way to drive places" drop them and move elsewhere. They are not right.
DESIGN AND DESTROY!
Know your state laws re: bus color and lights. Know your state laws re: seatbelts (resource here
https://rvshare.com/blog/things-need-know-rv-seat-belt-laws/.) Consider how passengers will travel. Sideways seats are not good for kids, and may be illegal to use with safety seats. It is up to you to be legal.
SEATBELTS NEED TO BE CONNECTED TO THE FRAME (or a seat designed to hold belts from a seat maker). This is where reusing the bolts from the bus seats can be a great idea.
Measure your bus. Use graph paper to start a build design, and remember:
WATER - POWER - KITCHEN - BATHROOM - BEDROOM - TRASH (liquid and physical) - ELECTRICAL - SEATING (more may be added, but keep these in mind).
Also, remember comfort for when you are traveling. Sitting side mounted for hundreds of miles is exhausting on bulky wooden homemade seats. And really, recycled bus seats are not comfy sideways. And like I said, it's not a great idea in general, and wrong for kids. Lap belts sideways in a forward facing accident change the shear rates and really... bench seating is not comfy for rides. Consider doing it somehow else. I know, it really messes up the space on the bus.
Are you going to bring your bus to bare rims and metal? That usually is the best way to go - it allows you to see holes, places that need attention, and then allows you to fill in insulation as needed. You also get rid of some of the disgusting materials that have been subject to kids. And, as we all know, kids be gross.
Don't be afraid of cutting holes in your bus. You are gonna need to for plumbing, and power. Remember to think carefully on roof cuts.
Any cut can be fixed with welding, but remember to try and get a welder to fix all at once. Find a local fabricator and talk with them, unless you know how to weld, or have a welding buddy. And practice safe welding.
If you decide to remove the rear heating fan, know that they are looped into your engine system. You will need to examine the system, and be prepared to loop the lines near the front. If your bus is old or rusty down below, wear good eye protection or a face shield. And watch out for coolant.
Check in with your local community college or technical school if you need welding done.
MUST HAVE TOOLS
Impact Drill. Chop saw. Hammer. Angle grinder. With these, you can build a skoolie to rival the gods! Well, you can do most of the work. I once saw a family using handsaws to cut things.
My goodness.
A tool I love that isn't required but is nifty, is a pocket jig. Also, a bit that extends and bends for your drill - helps you get to hard to reach places.
Battery operated tools can travel with you, but you need to buy ones with good batteries. If your batteries don't hold a charge, buy a new battery. If it still doesn't hold a charge, you need a new tool. Modern battery powered items are amazing.
Also, buy tons of drill bits. And if you have issues removing bus screws in the ceiling or walls? Try a square bit.
Self tapping screws are worth it, too.
WOOD?
Wood. I used 2x3s to cut a bit of weight. You use what you feel right with. You CAN use metal framing.
BUILDING YOUR DESIGN (BUILDING BOXES AND YOU)
Every carpenter I talked to about skoolie builds (one of them) said that every piece of furniture starts life as a box. Get used to building boxes. Boxes can become chairs, beds, shelves, tesseracts - the possibilities are endless.
BY THE POWER OF SKOOLIESTROKE, I HAVE THE (ELECTRICAL) POWER!
A playlist of all the electrical questions you might have.
Electrical can be as simple as an extension cord that goes out one of your windows, to 50 amp fuse boxes.
Here's a quick overview.
gilliganphantom's youtube channel has one of the best pre planning videos for running electrical out there.
Also, instead of romex wire, people tend to use extension cords for wire runs. There is talk of extension cords being more robust in a vibrating world. I use both, never had an issue myself. That doesn't mean much, really... but just know either is viable for a time.
Wire stripper
wire crimper
Those two things are great, used in conjunction with butt connectors you should have code worthy splices. And lots of electrical tape.
When it comes to batteries, it's all about uniformity and amp hours. There's a lot of complicated math that talks about power usage and what not, and honestly, I am terrible at it.
Lead acid batteries put off gasses when charging. Deep cycle batteries are what you want, and this is an area you shouldn't cheap out on (but you can!). LiPo batteries are both amazing and can be dangerous. Your house batteries (those are your power my stuff batteries, not the power my bus type) need to be safely contained. It's a good idea to have a fire extinguisher nearby rated for electrical fires.
Ashandrik talks about Solenoids, and why they are a good idea:
"I used a 200A Cole Hersee Battery Isolator Solenoid. You can use anything similar, but make sure the amperage capacity is higher than your alternator puts out (my alternator was rated at 160A). 160A is really common on skoolies, but some buses that had a lot of accessories in them (charter buses mostly) have two alternators at 240A each.
I wired the control contacts (the ones on the top) to switch on my bus' control panel. You don't want the bus trying to use the house batteries to start from. You'll damage them. So, with the switch, I can turn it on after the bus has started. You could also wire it into a 12V source that is only one when the bus is running, but I didn't want the batteries connected until a few minutes after the bus had started and the starter batteries were topped off. This way I never have to worry about any deep draws between the starter batteries or the house batteries.
The other benefit of the switch is that if I'm ever in an emergency situation where I decide damaging my house batteries to get the bus started is worth it, I still have that option. I also let the house batteries top off the starter batteries if I sit for a while. If I have a net gain of solar or if I'm on shore power, I can turn on the switch for a couple hours to act as a battery maintainer."
Carolina_tiny_homes suggests a DC to DC inverter. They are expensive, but will extend the life of the battery and pay for itself in no time.
Depending on your power usage, you may not need house batteries. It's a discussion for another day.
CAPTURING THE SUN AND MAKING IT WORK FOR YOU
SOLAR AND BATTERY HAS COME A LONG WAY IN TWO YEARS. DO NOT BUY USED.
Solar power is free energy. Setting up Solar is not. It's cheaper to build your own system, but easier to buy pre-built. No matter what system you go with, there will be positives and negatives.
From
c4pken:
Rule of thumb. If you can turn it off, do it. That's how you save power and passive draining. Ideally have a switch that takes it off the breaker.
Things you can't control or use a lot... try to see if there's a DC version.
Using an Inverter does get you AC power, but at the cost of 15%-20% energy loss during the inversion process.
This is why we made DC refrigerators, depending on where you're at, you can recover the consumption for all our appliance through a single 200W panel over a day.
...Lights and even a TV doesn't take too much juice out of a solar setup. Solar doesn't have to cost an arm and a leg. It doesn't even need to be overbearing, know and understand what your needs are and then work from the consumption up.
(( check out
www.c4pinc.com for more info, or the blog for more specifics ))
WATER? HOT AND COLD, WASTE AND CLEAN
Plumbing. It's simple, good water comes in, bad water goes out. Like the tides. Water can be hot or cold. You can use a propane tank to heat your water. You can go with a tank or tankless. With the water flow, tankless may be the way to go, especially with space issues.
When designing, remember in and out and leave space for that.
Also, leave space to work on your pipes. Pex is so easy to work with
https://www.familyhandyman.com/plumbing/pex-piping-everything-you-need-to-know/view-all/.
You are going to have leaks. Vibration will cause joints to shift. Make them easy to get to.
Toilets in a skoolie - if you do traditional black water toilet, it is just like putting one in your house. If you use an expensive but well worth it composting toilet, plumbing is not needed. You can even use a bucket and Walmart bags and Ice Tea bottles.
Just be aware, getting sick in a composting toilet is a special kind of treat.
GREY WATER, BLACK WATER AND WHY PEEING IN AN OPEN TUBE IS BAD
I talk about this disaster all the time. One of the earliest skoolie builds I ever saw had a pvc pipe that went directly through the floor and dumped onto the ground below. It was in the middle of the bus. People used it to pee directly out of the bus, parked or while driving.
THIS IS NOT GOOD.
illegal.
Urine loves to mess with metal. Splashing happens. So plan to have places for waste product to go, and know that your grey water tank (Soapy water, shower water, stuff like that) has to be slightly higher than your black tank so accidental back fill doesn't flow into it.
When you do a water dump, you do your black water first, then close it and do your grey water second. You don't want black water to backfill your grey... because odor.
I will try and find a good resources for grey/black/drinking tanks here. But really, they are easy to do. Mounting is interesting, and you may wish to think of mounting (or cutting holes) these BEFORE you finish the floor. Or at least putting the mounts in, if you end up going through the floor.
Here's a post I did when a user wasn't so sure of a bucket full of poopgoop:
Composting toilets are a weird thing. In the USA we are used to flushing away all effluvia - anything else is just not done.
Even holes in the ground are suspect (like camping at a state park) and portapotties are just NASTY.
Even portapotties have fluid in them. So what is a composting toilet?
Well, I can't answer that easily. But I can link you to a blog I found that answers questions you may have:
https://www.gonewiththewynns.com/compost-toilet-big-questions ...
Here's NaturesHead's FAQ, this company is generally considered the luxury brand composting toilet. They are usually very expensive.
https://natureshead.net/faqs/ Wanna make your own composting toilet? Check out what
MajerGlazer says:
"After 8 months of use, it held up great. We mounted it outside our vehicle (trailer tongue) for storage and transport but overall, limited smells were given off. We chose coconut fibers bought on Amazon since it was way easier to store and does the same as peat/sawdust. It came in small compressed bricks that you add a small amt of water and fluff and presto, you have your cover.
Use a bag in your setup, it will make your #2 cleanups infinitely easier. We also liked have an external liquids collection to keep things neat. We could connect the bottle (any size gatorade or juice container) and use inside but a lot of the time would drain to mother nature. Feel free to ask me anything.
Also, my original design had a small flaw when men were using the potty. The funnel worked great for ladies but some man parts were cramped near the funnel. I would have mounted a bit lower in the bin to give the parts some space."
Youtube has a ton of videos on composting toilets.
HEATING AND COOLING?
A/C is one of the most difficult things to have when boondocking. Heating is easier, due to the fact that it can be done with propane heaters. More to come when I collect resources!
Fans are easier and can do quite well.
INSULATION!
Blown or pink stuff? Rigid or foam? How about sound insulation? Links coming!
FYI, larger bus builders tend to go with blown stuff.
Rockwool or Denim? I use both, and they are very similar in sound proofing and R value. I like working with the denim MUCH more because less itch. But if you know Rockwool, you pretty much know denim.
KITCHEN?
Do you really need large ranges and stuff? Can you get by with butane cooktops? Propane? Electrical? Induction?
I personally use a coleman stove and a hot plate in my skoolie. I have a butane burner and a rice cooker (It died spectacularly in Colorado last year. RIP Rice cooker. I only used you once) as well.
I have a chest fridge/freezer and it has a built in battery. I LOVE IT.
PROPANE, AND PROPANE ACCESSORIES
Propane is a lot like plumbing, and you test for leaks the same way - system under pressure! Each joint needs easy access, and to test a joint, you put soapy water on it and look for bubbles. Run your propane to your kitchen and hot water tank. And furnace. It will most likely run in parallel with your water.
Here's a skoolie conversion that does the propane - they are fun to watch, but I wouldn't call them experts. It's a great jumping off place, especially if you watch all their videos. They learn so much by mistake, which is how many of us learn.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lmy1uGzFgoo <-- Ian Robinson
Outdoor Propane tools can cause a bus fire, so make sure you know your propane setup and your state laws on propane canisters.
WIRELESS INTERNET AND YOU
Alright, so how to do you get your internets on the road? Well, all phone companies have some sort of option, and you really need to be careful with your usage and be aware of what is available.
There are multiple solutions, and change yearly.
PAINTING THE ROOF The best thing to do is paint your roof white. There are those that think the temperature changes are negligible, and sure, we are dealing with a game of inches. But when you are looking at a difference of 4-10 degrees, it can make a HUGE difference in your power usage in cooling or heating.
So paint your roof. Use silicone or latex. Make sure it is RV roof paint, though general white paint can work.
https://www.reddit.com/skoolies/comments/93zg7p/roof_coatings/ A discussion on the pros and cons of latex versus Silicone roof paints.
https://www.reddit.com/skoolies/comments/93nsoh/henrys_tropicool/e3f7jyx/ A discussion on WHY you paint the roof white.
submitted by College Football Picks & NCAA Football Predictions. Picks and Parlays hits the gridiron hard and provides college football picks and predictions for every game on the card each week. Our talented team gives you expert picks on NCAA Football from opening night in August through the bowl season and CFP National Championship game in January. College football picks and college football predictions for the 2020-21 season. Covering every game from power conference and Top 25 teams. Get college football expert picks against the spread and on totals every week of the season absolutely free. Check out our college football best bets for our top plays of this week’s college football slate. Picking college football winners against the spread is no easy task. Expert picks can be purchased from handicappers, and you can dig through all the stats, scores, standings, team rankings, and reports. Why Should I Use NCAAF Computer Picks? More and more NCAAF bettors are trusting the machines to do the work. College football picks, predictions against the spread for every conference championship game. Written By Bill Bender Ranking college football teams by most Super Bowl-winning players . Free college football picks for 2021. Don't miss today's game score predictions and NCAAF picks against the spread from SBR betting experts. CFN Expert Picks · January 9, 2021 11:45 pm · By: CollegeFootballNews.com 08 Jan College Football Expert Picks: Ohio State vs Alabama, CFP National Championship Free NCAA Football picks against the spread from the UltimateCapper staff. Previews, predictions, and articles updated daily throughout the College Football season. Get the latest NCAA College Football picks from CBS Sports. Experts weigh in with analysis and provide premium picks for upcoming college football games. Welcome to Pickwatch, the home of College Football expert picks. We track all the experts from CBS, USA Today, Athlon Sports and more and compare them for accuracy! Check out College Football Expert Against the Spread Bowls I 2020 Picks!
Teddy Covers and Drew Martin go over the latest odds and breakdown "Every Game On The Board" in Week 15 of the college football schedule. This is the first s... Pac 12 Championship Utah vs Oregon Big 12 Championship Baylor vs Oklahoma SEC Championship Georgia vs LSU Big Ten Championship Ohio State vs Wisconsin Playof... 🏈 In this episode of The College Football Betting Show for Week #10 The Prez, Dave Cokin, and Teddy Covers give out their college football picks and predicti... Shaun and Mike break down and give their predictions for week 8 of the 2019 college football season. New this week, the duo will be picking 15 games here on... Stanford Cardinal vs USC Trojans Predictions, Picks, and Odds for their showdown on September 7, 2019, from United Airlines Field at LA Memorial Coliseum. Di... 💰 In this week's episode of Bet On It direct from Las Vegas, Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo, and Gianni "The Greek Gambler" break down College Football Week 5... College Football Picks and Predictions for Week 13: Want to know who the early sharp action is on this week in college football? Kelly Stewart and Westgate ... 💰 In this week's episode of Bet On it direct from Las Vegas, Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo, and Gianni "The Greek Gambler" break down College Football Week ... South Carolina Gamecocks vs North Carolina Tar Heels Predictions, Picks, and Odds for their showdown on August 31, 2019, from Bank of America Stadium. Direct...